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100 Metro Areas with the Greatest Population Growth & Decline Through the COVID Pandemic

by King White, on Jul 19, 2022 4:53:13 PM

The COVID-19 pandemic (COVID) created a massive shift in population across the U.S. People migrated from major cities like New York City, Los Angeles, Chicago, and the Bay Area to lower-cost cities such as Dallas, Phoenix, Atlanta, and Austin. There is a flight from the densely populated mega-cities as people seek a better quality of life. The traditional geographic boundaries have been removed by the work-from-home employment market created by COVID. The long-term implication is unknown but all indicators seem to show this trend may not change any time soon which could be devastating for many cities.

Corporate relocations driving some growth

A significant number of corporate relocations have come out of states such as California, Illinois, and New York. These massive site selection projects create an opportunity for employees to relocate to lower-cost geographies with lower taxes, less expensive housing, and more attractive quality of life among other traditional site selection factors. These projects include headquarters, manufacturing plants, distribution centers, call centers, and other similar operations. Some recent examples include:

  • McKesson from San Francisco to Dallas
  • Caterpiller from Chicago to Dallas
  • AECOM from Los Angeles to Dallas
  • Digital Realty from San Francisco to Austin, Texas
  • Oracle from Silicon Valley to Austin, Texas
  • Hewlett-Packard Enterprise (HPE), a spinoff from San Francisco’s HP, to Houston
  • Norfolk Southern from Norfolk, Virginia, to Atlanta

Population growth data identifies the winners and losers

COVID amplified the demographic shifts occurring in the U.S. By analyzing the population changes from 2019 to 2022, you are able to identify the winning and losing cities across the U.S.

There are really two ways to analyze the data. The first option is to evaluate the net new population growth and the other is to analyze the percentage growth. The net new population growth approach will benefit the large metro areas as they have a larger base population to grow from, which means that even a small percentage growth can equate to a large net new population increase. Conversely, if you calculate the percentage growth rate, smaller metro areas will emerge as it is much easier to grow rapidly if starting from a smaller base population.

The following tables identify the top 25 metro areas based on the highest increase and decrease in population between 2019 and 2022:

Top 25 Fastest Growing Metro Areas
Population Increase (2019-2022)

Rank Metro Area 2019 Population 2022 Population Population Change % Change
1 Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX 7,574,390 7,949,867 375,477 4.96%
2 Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ 4,953,901 5,275,248 321,347 6.49%
3 Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX 7,063,400 7,350,898 287,498 4.07%
4 Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Alpharetta, GA 6,027,231 6,254,452 227,221 3.77%
5 Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX 2,228,106 2,425,436 197,330 8.86%
6 Las Vegas-Henderson-Paradise, NV 2,275,884 2,414,593 138,709 6.09%
7 Charlotte-Concord-Gastonia, NC-SC 2,640,117 2,778,040 137,923 5.22%
8 Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL 3,200,120 3,333,657 133,537 4.17%
9 Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue, WA 3,977,785 4,108,061 130,276 3.28%
10 San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX 2,550,147 2,674,380 124,233 4.87%
11 Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV 6,297,454 6,418,204 120,750 1.92%
12 Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA 4,642,848 4,759,344 116,496 2.51%
13 Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL 2,608,273 2,708,510 100,237 3.84%
14 Denver-Aurora-Lakewood, CO 2,964,811 3,059,318 94,507 3.19%
15 Raleigh-Cary, NC 1,392,356 1,481,717 89,361 6.42%
16 Nashville-Davidson--Murfreesboro--Franklin, TN 1,933,455 2,019,156 85,701 4.43%
17 Jacksonville, FL 1,561,806 1,644,417 82,611 5.29%
18 Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI 3,639,892 3,720,015 80,123 2.20%
19 Miami-Fort Lauderdale-Pompano Beach, FL 6,164,887 6,235,261 70,374 1.14%
20 Boise City, ID 750,050 813,436 63,386 8.45%
21 Indianapolis-Carmel-Anderson, IN 2,073,336 2,135,165 61,829 2.98%
22 Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL 724,967 783,123 58,156 8.02%
23 Sacramento-Roseville-Folsom, CA 2,363,654 2,421,670 58,016 2.45%
24 Portland-Vancouver-Hillsboro, OR-WA 2,492,479 2,550,000 57,521 2.31%
25 Columbus, OH 2,125,507 2,182,021 56,514 2.66%


Top 25 Fastest Growing Metro Areas
Percentage Population Growth (2019-2022)

Rank Metro Area 2019 Population 2022 Population Population Change % Change
1 Williston, ND 37,897 43,536 5,639 14.88%
2 Jefferson, GA 73,015 81,829 8,814 12.07%
3 Cedar City, UT 55,269 61,712 6,443 11.66%
4 St. George, UT 177,938 197,234 19,296 10.84%
5 The Villages, FL 133,772 147,455 13,683 10.23%
6 Andrews, TX 18,821 20,684 1,863 9.90%
7 Pahrump, NV 46,845 51,376 4,531 9.67%
8 Myrtle Beach-Conway-North Myrtle Beach, SC-NC 497,405 545,370 47,965 9.64%
9 Greeley, CO 324,703 354,173 29,470 9.08%
10 Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX 2,228,106 2,425,436 197,330 8.86%
11 Prineville, OR 24,388 26,481 2,093 8.58%
12 Coeur d'Alene, ID 165,656 179,830 14,174 8.56%
13 Boise City, ID 750,050 813,436 63,386 8.45%
14 Bend, OR 197,417 213,469 16,052 8.13%
15 Granbury, TX 61,762 66,733 4,971 8.05%
16 Lamesa, TX 12,985 14,028 1,043 8.03%
17 Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL 724,967 783,123 58,156 8.02%
18 Fernley, NV 57,499 61,955 4,456 7.75%
19 Pecos, TX 16,116 17,350 1,234 7.66%
20 Statesboro, GA 79,718 85,778 6,060 7.60%
21 Daphne-Fairhope-Foley, AL 223,565 240,532 16,967 7.59%
22 Punta Gorda, FL 189,669 203,875 14,206 7.49%
23 Hinesville, GA 82,460 88,609 6,149 7.46%
24 Sandpoint, ID 45,774 49,175 3,401 7.43%
25 Cape Coral-Fort Myers, FL 772,268 826,849 54,581 7.07%


Top 25 Declining Metro Areas
Population Decrease (2019-2022)

Rank Metro Area 2019 Population 2022 Population Population Change % Change
1 New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA 19,232,494 19,046,124 -186,370 -0.97%
2 Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim, CA 13,182,453 13,016,738 -165,715 -1.26%
3 Chicago-Naperville-Elgin, IL-IN-WI 9,454,282 9,361,019 -93,263 -0.99%
4 Urban Honolulu, HI 973,491 945,562 -27,929 -2.87%
5 San Jose-Sunnyvale-Santa Clara, CA 1,985,214 1,960,006 -25,208 -1.27%
6 Chico, CA 218,726 193,548 -25,178 -11.51%
7 Panama City, FL 173,895 150,113 -23,782 -13.68%
8 San Francisco-Oakland-Berkeley, CA 4,724,016 4,704,386 -19,630 -0.42%
9 Detroit-Warren-Dearborn, MI 4,319,413 4,303,953 -15,460 -0.36%
10 Pittsburgh, PA 2,317,913 2,303,525 -14,388 -0.62%
11 Santa Rosa-Petaluma, CA 492,318 481,030 -11,288 -2.29%
12 Cleveland-Elyria, OH 2,049,028 2,038,061 -10,967 -0.54%
13 Jackson, MS 595,231 586,266 -8,965 -1.51%
14 Youngstown-Warren-Boardman, OH-PA 534,875 526,770 -8,105 -1.52%
15 Charleston, WV 257,365 249,442 -7,923 -3.08%
16 Peoria, IL 400,575 392,832 -7,743 -1.93%
17 Oxnard-Thousand Oaks-Ventura, CA 844,203 836,761 -7,442 -0.88%
18 Shreveport-Bossier City, LA 395,248 388,476 -6,772 -1.71%
19 Huntington-Ashland, WV-KY-OH 356,281 349,661 -6,620 -1.86%
20 New Haven-Milford, CT 853,818 847,356 -6,462 -0.76%
21 Rochester, NY 1,070,551 1,064,881 -5,670 -0.53%
22 Watertown-Fort Drum, NY 110,143 104,571 -5,572 -5.06%
23 Erie, PA 269,529 264,510 -5,019 -1.86%
24 Ann Arbor, MI 368,242 363,397 -4,845 -1.32%
25 Hartford-East Hartford-Middletown, CT 1,204,752 1,200,091 -4,661 -0.39%


Top 25 Declining Metro Areas
Percentage Population Decrease (2019-2022)

Rank Metro Area 2019 Population 2022 Population Population Change % Change
1 Panama City, FL 173,895 150,113 -23,782 -13.68%
2 Chico, CA 218,726 193,548 -25,178 -11.51%
3 Indianola, MS 25,131 22,914 -2,217 -8.82%
4 Selma, AL 37,182 34,305 -2,877 -7.74%
5 Greenville, MS 43,973 40,922 -3,051 -6.94%
6 Clarksdale, MS 22,095 20,680 -1,415 -6.40%
7 Middlesborough, KY 26,026 24,703 -1,323 -5.09%
8 Watertown-Fort Drum, NY 110,143 104,571 -5,572 -5.06%
9 Liberal, KS 21,421 20,464 -957 -4.47%
10 Helena-West Helena, AR 17,769 16,991 -778 -4.38%
11 Pine Bluff, AR 88,086 84,246 -3,840 -4.36%
12 Fairbanks, AK 97,088 92,910 -4,178 -4.30%
13 Cleveland, MS 30,714 29,474 -1,240 -4.04%
14 Forrest City, AR 24,977 23,971 -1,006 -4.03%
15 Mount Gay-Shamrock, WV 31,989 30,731 -1,258 -3.93%
16 Natchez, MS-LA 50,050 48,091 -1,959 -3.91%
17 Vicksburg, MS 45,477 43,874 -1,603 -3.53%
18 Blytheville, AR 40,717 39,327 -1,390 -3.41%
19 Bennettsville, SC 26,157 25,268 -889 -3.40%
20 Guymon, OK 20,216 19,542 -674 -3.33%
21 Farmington, NM 124,027 119,963 -4,064 -3.28%
22 Danville, IL 75,736 73,276 -2,460 -3.25%
23 Morgan City, LA 49,294 47,757 -1,537 -3.12%
24 Charleston, WV 257,365 249,442 -7,923 -3.08%
25 Roanoke Rapids, NC 69,572 67,444 -2,128 -3.06%

 

Conclusions

Many factors should be evaluated when a company searches for the best locations for its headquarters, shared service centers, manufacturing plants, distribution centers, call centers or other corporate facilities. Population growth is one of those factors; however, it is important to understand why a metro area is incurring such growth before making a location decision.

Topics:Call CenterDistribution CentersManufacturingEconomic Development

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