100 Metro Areas with the Greatest Population Growth & Decline Through the COVID Pandemic
by King White, on Jul 19, 2022 4:53:13 PM
The COVID-19 pandemic (COVID) created a massive shift in population across the U.S. People migrated from major cities like New York City, Los Angeles, Chicago, and the Bay Area to lower-cost cities such as Dallas, Phoenix, Atlanta, and Austin. There is a flight from the densely populated mega-cities as people seek a better quality of life. The traditional geographic boundaries have been removed by the work-from-home employment market created by COVID. The long-term implication is unknown but all indicators seem to show this trend may not change any time soon which could be devastating for many cities.
Corporate relocations driving some growth
A significant number of corporate relocations have come out of states such as California, Illinois, and New York. These massive site selection projects create an opportunity for employees to relocate to lower-cost geographies with lower taxes, less expensive housing, and more attractive quality of life among other traditional site selection factors. These projects include headquarters, manufacturing plants, distribution centers, call centers, and other similar operations. Some recent examples include:
- McKesson from San Francisco to Dallas
- Caterpiller from Chicago to Dallas
- AECOM from Los Angeles to Dallas
- Digital Realty from San Francisco to Austin, Texas
- Oracle from Silicon Valley to Austin, Texas
- Hewlett-Packard Enterprise (HPE), a spinoff from San Francisco’s HP, to Houston
- Norfolk Southern from Norfolk, Virginia, to Atlanta
Population growth data identifies the winners and losers
COVID amplified the demographic shifts occurring in the U.S. By analyzing the population changes from 2019 to 2022, you are able to identify the winning and losing cities across the U.S.
There are really two ways to analyze the data. The first option is to evaluate the net new population growth and the other is to analyze the percentage growth. The net new population growth approach will benefit the large metro areas as they have a larger base population to grow from, which means that even a small percentage growth can equate to a large net new population increase. Conversely, if you calculate the percentage growth rate, smaller metro areas will emerge as it is much easier to grow rapidly if starting from a smaller base population.
The following tables identify the top 25 metro areas based on the highest increase and decrease in population between 2019 and 2022:
Top 25 Fastest Growing Metro Areas
Population Increase (2019-2022)
| Rank | Metro Area | 2019 Population | 2022 Population | Population Change | % Change |
| 1 | Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX | 7,574,390 | 7,949,867 | 375,477 | 4.96% |
| 2 | Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ | 4,953,901 | 5,275,248 | 321,347 | 6.49% |
| 3 | Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX | 7,063,400 | 7,350,898 | 287,498 | 4.07% |
| 4 | Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Alpharetta, GA | 6,027,231 | 6,254,452 | 227,221 | 3.77% |
| 5 | Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX | 2,228,106 | 2,425,436 | 197,330 | 8.86% |
| 6 | Las Vegas-Henderson-Paradise, NV | 2,275,884 | 2,414,593 | 138,709 | 6.09% |
| 7 | Charlotte-Concord-Gastonia, NC-SC | 2,640,117 | 2,778,040 | 137,923 | 5.22% |
| 8 | Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL | 3,200,120 | 3,333,657 | 133,537 | 4.17% |
| 9 | Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue, WA | 3,977,785 | 4,108,061 | 130,276 | 3.28% |
| 10 | San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX | 2,550,147 | 2,674,380 | 124,233 | 4.87% |
| 11 | Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV | 6,297,454 | 6,418,204 | 120,750 | 1.92% |
| 12 | Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA | 4,642,848 | 4,759,344 | 116,496 | 2.51% |
| 13 | Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL | 2,608,273 | 2,708,510 | 100,237 | 3.84% |
| 14 | Denver-Aurora-Lakewood, CO | 2,964,811 | 3,059,318 | 94,507 | 3.19% |
| 15 | Raleigh-Cary, NC | 1,392,356 | 1,481,717 | 89,361 | 6.42% |
| 16 | Nashville-Davidson--Murfreesboro--Franklin, TN | 1,933,455 | 2,019,156 | 85,701 | 4.43% |
| 17 | Jacksonville, FL | 1,561,806 | 1,644,417 | 82,611 | 5.29% |
| 18 | Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI | 3,639,892 | 3,720,015 | 80,123 | 2.20% |
| 19 | Miami-Fort Lauderdale-Pompano Beach, FL | 6,164,887 | 6,235,261 | 70,374 | 1.14% |
| 20 | Boise City, ID | 750,050 | 813,436 | 63,386 | 8.45% |
| 21 | Indianapolis-Carmel-Anderson, IN | 2,073,336 | 2,135,165 | 61,829 | 2.98% |
| 22 | Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL | 724,967 | 783,123 | 58,156 | 8.02% |
| 23 | Sacramento-Roseville-Folsom, CA | 2,363,654 | 2,421,670 | 58,016 | 2.45% |
| 24 | Portland-Vancouver-Hillsboro, OR-WA | 2,492,479 | 2,550,000 | 57,521 | 2.31% |
| 25 | Columbus, OH | 2,125,507 | 2,182,021 | 56,514 | 2.66% |
Top 25 Fastest Growing Metro Areas
Percentage Population Growth (2019-2022)
| Rank | Metro Area | 2019 Population | 2022 Population | Population Change | % Change |
| 1 | Williston, ND | 37,897 | 43,536 | 5,639 | 14.88% |
| 2 | Jefferson, GA | 73,015 | 81,829 | 8,814 | 12.07% |
| 3 | Cedar City, UT | 55,269 | 61,712 | 6,443 | 11.66% |
| 4 | St. George, UT | 177,938 | 197,234 | 19,296 | 10.84% |
| 5 | The Villages, FL | 133,772 | 147,455 | 13,683 | 10.23% |
| 6 | Andrews, TX | 18,821 | 20,684 | 1,863 | 9.90% |
| 7 | Pahrump, NV | 46,845 | 51,376 | 4,531 | 9.67% |
| 8 | Myrtle Beach-Conway-North Myrtle Beach, SC-NC | 497,405 | 545,370 | 47,965 | 9.64% |
| 9 | Greeley, CO | 324,703 | 354,173 | 29,470 | 9.08% |
| 10 | Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX | 2,228,106 | 2,425,436 | 197,330 | 8.86% |
| 11 | Prineville, OR | 24,388 | 26,481 | 2,093 | 8.58% |
| 12 | Coeur d'Alene, ID | 165,656 | 179,830 | 14,174 | 8.56% |
| 13 | Boise City, ID | 750,050 | 813,436 | 63,386 | 8.45% |
| 14 | Bend, OR | 197,417 | 213,469 | 16,052 | 8.13% |
| 15 | Granbury, TX | 61,762 | 66,733 | 4,971 | 8.05% |
| 16 | Lamesa, TX | 12,985 | 14,028 | 1,043 | 8.03% |
| 17 | Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL | 724,967 | 783,123 | 58,156 | 8.02% |
| 18 | Fernley, NV | 57,499 | 61,955 | 4,456 | 7.75% |
| 19 | Pecos, TX | 16,116 | 17,350 | 1,234 | 7.66% |
| 20 | Statesboro, GA | 79,718 | 85,778 | 6,060 | 7.60% |
| 21 | Daphne-Fairhope-Foley, AL | 223,565 | 240,532 | 16,967 | 7.59% |
| 22 | Punta Gorda, FL | 189,669 | 203,875 | 14,206 | 7.49% |
| 23 | Hinesville, GA | 82,460 | 88,609 | 6,149 | 7.46% |
| 24 | Sandpoint, ID | 45,774 | 49,175 | 3,401 | 7.43% |
| 25 | Cape Coral-Fort Myers, FL | 772,268 | 826,849 | 54,581 | 7.07% |
Top 25 Declining Metro Areas
Population Decrease (2019-2022)
| Rank | Metro Area | 2019 Population | 2022 Population | Population Change | % Change |
| 1 | New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA | 19,232,494 | 19,046,124 | -186,370 | -0.97% |
| 2 | Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim, CA | 13,182,453 | 13,016,738 | -165,715 | -1.26% |
| 3 | Chicago-Naperville-Elgin, IL-IN-WI | 9,454,282 | 9,361,019 | -93,263 | -0.99% |
| 4 | Urban Honolulu, HI | 973,491 | 945,562 | -27,929 | -2.87% |
| 5 | San Jose-Sunnyvale-Santa Clara, CA | 1,985,214 | 1,960,006 | -25,208 | -1.27% |
| 6 | Chico, CA | 218,726 | 193,548 | -25,178 | -11.51% |
| 7 | Panama City, FL | 173,895 | 150,113 | -23,782 | -13.68% |
| 8 | San Francisco-Oakland-Berkeley, CA | 4,724,016 | 4,704,386 | -19,630 | -0.42% |
| 9 | Detroit-Warren-Dearborn, MI | 4,319,413 | 4,303,953 | -15,460 | -0.36% |
| 10 | Pittsburgh, PA | 2,317,913 | 2,303,525 | -14,388 | -0.62% |
| 11 | Santa Rosa-Petaluma, CA | 492,318 | 481,030 | -11,288 | -2.29% |
| 12 | Cleveland-Elyria, OH | 2,049,028 | 2,038,061 | -10,967 | -0.54% |
| 13 | Jackson, MS | 595,231 | 586,266 | -8,965 | -1.51% |
| 14 | Youngstown-Warren-Boardman, OH-PA | 534,875 | 526,770 | -8,105 | -1.52% |
| 15 | Charleston, WV | 257,365 | 249,442 | -7,923 | -3.08% |
| 16 | Peoria, IL | 400,575 | 392,832 | -7,743 | -1.93% |
| 17 | Oxnard-Thousand Oaks-Ventura, CA | 844,203 | 836,761 | -7,442 | -0.88% |
| 18 | Shreveport-Bossier City, LA | 395,248 | 388,476 | -6,772 | -1.71% |
| 19 | Huntington-Ashland, WV-KY-OH | 356,281 | 349,661 | -6,620 | -1.86% |
| 20 | New Haven-Milford, CT | 853,818 | 847,356 | -6,462 | -0.76% |
| 21 | Rochester, NY | 1,070,551 | 1,064,881 | -5,670 | -0.53% |
| 22 | Watertown-Fort Drum, NY | 110,143 | 104,571 | -5,572 | -5.06% |
| 23 | Erie, PA | 269,529 | 264,510 | -5,019 | -1.86% |
| 24 | Ann Arbor, MI | 368,242 | 363,397 | -4,845 | -1.32% |
| 25 | Hartford-East Hartford-Middletown, CT | 1,204,752 | 1,200,091 | -4,661 | -0.39% |
Top 25 Declining Metro Areas
Percentage Population Decrease (2019-2022)
| Rank | Metro Area | 2019 Population | 2022 Population | Population Change | % Change |
| 1 | Panama City, FL | 173,895 | 150,113 | -23,782 | -13.68% |
| 2 | Chico, CA | 218,726 | 193,548 | -25,178 | -11.51% |
| 3 | Indianola, MS | 25,131 | 22,914 | -2,217 | -8.82% |
| 4 | Selma, AL | 37,182 | 34,305 | -2,877 | -7.74% |
| 5 | Greenville, MS | 43,973 | 40,922 | -3,051 | -6.94% |
| 6 | Clarksdale, MS | 22,095 | 20,680 | -1,415 | -6.40% |
| 7 | Middlesborough, KY | 26,026 | 24,703 | -1,323 | -5.09% |
| 8 | Watertown-Fort Drum, NY | 110,143 | 104,571 | -5,572 | -5.06% |
| 9 | Liberal, KS | 21,421 | 20,464 | -957 | -4.47% |
| 10 | Helena-West Helena, AR | 17,769 | 16,991 | -778 | -4.38% |
| 11 | Pine Bluff, AR | 88,086 | 84,246 | -3,840 | -4.36% |
| 12 | Fairbanks, AK | 97,088 | 92,910 | -4,178 | -4.30% |
| 13 | Cleveland, MS | 30,714 | 29,474 | -1,240 | -4.04% |
| 14 | Forrest City, AR | 24,977 | 23,971 | -1,006 | -4.03% |
| 15 | Mount Gay-Shamrock, WV | 31,989 | 30,731 | -1,258 | -3.93% |
| 16 | Natchez, MS-LA | 50,050 | 48,091 | -1,959 | -3.91% |
| 17 | Vicksburg, MS | 45,477 | 43,874 | -1,603 | -3.53% |
| 18 | Blytheville, AR | 40,717 | 39,327 | -1,390 | -3.41% |
| 19 | Bennettsville, SC | 26,157 | 25,268 | -889 | -3.40% |
| 20 | Guymon, OK | 20,216 | 19,542 | -674 | -3.33% |
| 21 | Farmington, NM | 124,027 | 119,963 | -4,064 | -3.28% |
| 22 | Danville, IL | 75,736 | 73,276 | -2,460 | -3.25% |
| 23 | Morgan City, LA | 49,294 | 47,757 | -1,537 | -3.12% |
| 24 | Charleston, WV | 257,365 | 249,442 | -7,923 | -3.08% |
| 25 | Roanoke Rapids, NC | 69,572 | 67,444 | -2,128 | -3.06% |
Conclusions
Many factors should be evaluated when a company searches for the best locations for its headquarters, shared service centers, manufacturing plants, distribution centers, call centers or other corporate facilities. Population growth is one of those factors; however, it is important to understand why a metro area is incurring such growth before making a location decision.
