U.S. Metro Areas with the Highest Projected 5-Year Population Growth
by Brett Bayduss, on Jun 15, 2023 8:30:00 AM
In today’s challenging labor environment, site selectors rely on multiple metrics to identify metro areas with favorable long-term labor conditions. Population growth is a popular measurement tool that provides insight to predicted population influx. Although population growth does not guarantee success with hiring and retaining employees, it does provide validation that labor conditions could be trending in a more favorable direction. Population growth alone should not be used to make a site selection decision, but understanding the metro areas that are predicted to grow more rapidly than other metro areas is a good step to narrowing down locations to conduct further analysis.
Regional population growth trends
Most population growth is occurring across the Sun Belt. Specific to the large metro areas, eight of the top 10 growth markets are located within the Sun Belt (Florida, North Carolina, Tennessee and Texas). Similarly, many of the high-growth metro areas with smaller and mid-sized populations are located within the Sun Belt, however, there is more geographic distribution of these smaller communities to the West and Midwest (Colorado, Idaho, Iowa, Nevada, North Dakota, South Dakota, Utah, Washington).
Fastest-growing metro areas
Site Selection Group identified the metro areas with the highest projected growth over the next five years and categorized them into three distinct groups based on overall population size. Large metro areas have a population of over 1 million, mid-size metro areas have 500,000 to 999,999 population and small metro areas have 250,000 to 499,999 population. Here are the rankings:
Top 10 Fastest Growing Large Metro Areas
Metro Area |
Projected Population Growth Rate |
Population |
Projected Population |
| Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX | 13.55% | 2,394,582 | 2,719,048 |
| Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX Metro | 9.62% | 7,326,336 | 8,031,130 |
| Nashville-Davidson-Murfreesboro-Franklin, TN | 9.39% | 2,041,664 | 2,233,376 |
| Raleigh-Durham, NC | 9.31% | 2,127,688 | 2,325,776 |
| Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX | 8.64% | 7,805,459 | 8,479,851 |
| Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL | 8.25% | 2,695,685 | 2,918,079 |
| Salt Lake City, UT | 8.23% | 1,290,371 | 1,396,569 |
| Charlotte-Concord-Gastonia, NC-SC | 8.16% | 2,723,943 | 2,946,217 |
| Jacksonville, FL | 7.48% | 1,628,445 | 1,750,253 |
| Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue, WA | 6.62% | 4,070,566 | 4,340,037 |
Top 10 Fastest Growing Mid-Size Metro Areas
Metro Area |
Projected Population Growth Rate |
Population (2023) |
Projected Population (2028) |
| Provo-Orem, UT | 14.09% | 710,895 | 811,060 |
| Boise City, ID | 11.41% | 806,834 | 898,894 |
| Myrtle Beach-Conway-North Myrtle Beach, SC-NC | 10.91% | 522,256 | 579,234 |
| McAllen-Edinburg-Mission, TX | 9.27% | 902,031 | 985,649 |
| Fayetteville-Springdale-Rogers, AR | 9.18% | 566,617 | 618,632 |
| Charleston-North Charleston, SC | 8.66% | 814,950 | 885,525 |
| Des Moines-West Des Moines, IA | 8.30% | 726,069 | 786,333 |
| Ogden-Clearfield, UT | 7.92% | 708,823 | 764,962 |
| North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL | 7.48% | 858,260 | 922,458 |
| Reno, NV | 7.14% | 506,384 | 542,540 |
Top 10 Fastest Growing Small Metro Areas
Metro Area |
Projected Population Growth Rate |
Population (2023) |
Projected Population (2028) |
| Sioux Falls, SD | 9.60% | 282,136 | 309,221 |
| Fargo, ND-MN | 9.57% | 255,213 | 279,637 |
| Greeley, CO | 9.24% | 323,055 | 352,905 |
| College Station-Bryan, TX | 8.84% | 276,095 | 300,502 |
| Kennewick-Richland, WA | 8.70% | 307,846 | 334,629 |
| Laredo, TX | 8.69% | 288,762 | 313,855 |
| Clarksville, TN-KY | 7.92% | 326,136 | 351,966 |
| Killeen-Temple, TX | 7.35% | 479,286 | 514,514 |
| Naples-Marco Island, FL | 7.33% | 387,702 | 416,121 |
| Lubbock, TX | 7.31% | 332,481 | 356,785 |
