How Latin America's Elections Could Affect Call Center and BPO Risk
by Brett Bayduss, on Sep 9, 2026, 7:00:00 AM
Latin America is moving through an important election cycle that could impact the business environment, specifically nearshore call centers, business process outsourcing providers, and shared services centers. Costa Rica, Peru and Colombia elected new presidents during 2026; Brazil will vote in October 2026; Argentina, El Salvador and Guatemala face elections in 2027; and Nicaragua has effectively eliminated the prospect of a competitive presidential election under current conditions.
Elections do not automatically translate into operating disruptions. However, close or disputed results can trigger demonstrations, strikes, transportation interruptions, and heightened security concerns. Changes in government can also influence labor regulation, taxes, foreign investment policy, economic incentives, currency stability, and the overall confidence companies have in making long-term location commitments.
For call center and BPO operators, the most important questions are whether the election is likely to preserve stability, whether the incoming government is supportive of foreign investment, whether results create political conflict and discourse causing employee disruption, and whether longer-term uncertainty around operating costs and business continuity is created.
Countries with Completed 2026 Presidential Transitions
Costa Rica: Decisive Result Reinforces Business Continuity
Costa Rica elected Laura Fernández of the Sovereign People's Party in the first round on February 1, 2026. Fernández received approximately 48.5% of the vote in a 20-candidate field, comfortably exceeding the 40% required to avoid a runoff. Her closest challenger, Álvaro Ramos, received roughly 33.3%.
Ramos conceded and committed to constructive opposition, and the result was not seriously contested. Costa Rica's established electoral institutions, peaceful transfer of power, and limited post-election unrest reinforce its position as one of LATAM's most politically stable call center and shared services markets.
Fernández is broadly pro-business and supports economic growth, government efficiency and tougher public-security policies. Her continuity with former President Rodrigo Chaves should reduce the risk of abrupt changes to foreign-investment policy. Fernández also enters office with a legislative majority, which should improve her ability to advance security, economic, and government-efficiency initiatives and further reduce near-term policy uncertainty.
For BPO employers, the outlook is generally positive: Policy continuity, strict rule of law, and an educated bilingual workforce remain important advantages. The primary concerns are more structural than electoral, including rising wages, competition for bilingual talent, and crime increases. Even so, Costa Rica's election outcome should support, not discourage, continued investment.
Peru: A Narrow Victory Leaves Political Risk Elevated
Keiko Fujimori won Peru's June 7 presidential runoff with approximately 50.14% of the vote, defeating leftist congressman Roberto Sánchez, who received approximately 49.87%. The margin was roughly 50,000 votes out of approximately 18 million, making it one of the closest elections in the region.
The election was followed by ballot reviews, fraud allegations, and demonstrations. Sánchez refused to recognize the result, despite the absence of substantiated evidence sufficient to overturn it. Fujimori was inaugurated on July 28, but opposition to both the result and the Fujimori family's political legacy remains significant. Peru therefore enters the new administration with a higher risk of protests, legislative conflict and recurring political instability than Costa Rica.
Fujimori is market-oriented and has emphasized private investment, infrastructure partnerships, security, and support for industries. Financial markets initially reacted positively. That policy direction could benefit the country's developing BPO and shared services sector by improving investor confidence and providing a more predictable business environment.
However, her pledge to raise the minimum wage is particularly relevant to call center and BPO employers, where labor cost is a primary component of the overall operating cost. The primary concern is whether Fujimori can translate her pro-business agenda into lasting policy and institutional stability. A fragmented political system, persistent public distrust, and elevated crime could limit her ability to implement reforms and sustain investor confidence.
The operating risk is not merely theoretical: Transportation sector protests over rising fuel costs occurred in August, prompting the government to introduce temporary fuel subsidies. For BPO employers, continued transportation cost pressure and intermittent protests could affect commuting reliability, absenteeism, and employee transportation programs. Operators should monitor the administration’s approach to labor regulation, workforce development, public security, infrastructure and foreign investment, which could strengthen Peru’s long-term competitiveness as a BPO destination.
Colombia: Pro-Business Shift Accompanied by Deep Polarization
Colombia elected right-wing, market-oriented populist Abelardo de la Espriella in the June 21 runoff against leftist senator Iván Cepeda. De la Espriella won by less than one percentage point, making the election extremely close. Outgoing President Gustavo Petro questioned aspects of the vote count and alleged irregularities, but Cepeda formally conceded after electoral authorities completed their review. Although the transfer of power proceeded and de la Espriella was inaugurated on August 7, the close result and Petro’s continued objections reinforced Colombia’s deep political polarization.
The new president has proposed major spending reductions, a smaller government, and a dedication to an improved security strategy. These positions are broadly pro-business and could improve foreign investment, including call centers and BPOs, but the scale and speed of the proposed changes could be a challenge.
However, Colombia remains highly polarized, and the president must govern with a divided Congress. The concern is opposition to his policies, including his security platform measure, which may increase near-term tensions and could generate demonstrations in the major cities. The call center/BPO fundamentals remain compelling: a large labor pool, improving English skills, competitive costs and proximity to the United States. The election may ultimately support investment, but companies may need to contend with protests and tensions in the coming months.
Presidential Elections Still Ahead
Brazil: Lula–Flávio Bolsonaro Contest Moves Toward a Statistical Tie
Brazil will hold its first-round presidential election on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25 if no candidate wins a majority of valid votes. The principal contest is between incumbent President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and Senator Flávio Bolsonaro, son of former President Jair Bolsonaro. Other candidates—including Ronaldo Caiado, Renan Santos and Romeu Zema—have polled well behind the two frontrunners.
Lula retains a narrow first-round advantage in several polls, but the contest should now be characterized as statistically tied. Late August polling placed Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro within the margin of error in both the first round and a potential runoff, making the outcome highly uncertain. The campaign is contentious because it renews the country's left-right divide and is occurring amid disputes involving the Bolsonaro family, the judiciary, and Brazil's relationship with the United States.
Both outcomes would preserve Brazil's large private-sector economy, but they imply different policy directions. Lula offers continuity and may emphasize labor protections and social spending, potentially increasing employer costs. Flávio Bolsonaro would likely pursue a more explicitly pro-business and security-focused agenda. His advisers have proposed a constitutional public-debt ceiling and tighter spending restrictions, although institutional conflict and polarizing rhetoric could increase unrest. For Brazil's sizable domestic and Portuguese-language BPO sector, the greatest near-term risks are demonstrations, strikes, currency volatility and uncertainty around labor, tax and fiscal policy.
Argentina: Milei Re-election or a Peronist Return
Argentina’s presidential election is currently expected to take place on October 24, 2027, with a potential runoff within 30 days. President Javier Milei has said he intends to seek reelection. The Peronist opposition has not finalized its candidate, but Buenos Aires Governor Axel Kicillof and former economy minister Sergio Massa are the most prominent potential challengers.
At this stage, forecasting a winner would be premature. Milei currently appears competitive and retains a meaningful base of support, but polling this far in advance should be treated primarily as a measure of government approval rather than a reliable election forecast. He benefits from his pro-market identity and the support created by lower inflation and fiscal reforms, but his approval has weakened amid unemployment, wage concerns and corruption allegations. The eventual unity—or fragmentation—of the Peronist opposition will be decisive.
Milei is the most explicitly pro-business contender and would likely continue deregulation, labor-market reform and efforts to reduce the size of government. Those policies could make Argentina more attractive for technology, BPO and shared services investment. However, Milei’s austerity measures have already generated strikes and demonstrations. A competitive 2027 campaign could intensify labor unrest, while a change in government could reverse portions of the reform program. Currency controls and inflation will matter more to BPO operating costs than the election result alone.
El Salvador: Security Improvements Strengthen Perception of El Salvador
El Salvador will hold an early presidential election in 2027 following constitutional changes that eliminated presidential term limits, extended presidential terms, and aligned presidential elections with legislative and municipal elections. President Nayib Bukele has registered to seek his party’s nomination for a third term.
Bukele’s security policies have dramatically reduced violent crime, strengthening El Salvador’s attractiveness for call center and BPO operations. However, indefinite reelection and the concentration of authority within the executive, legislature, and judiciary raise longer-term concerns about checks and balances and constitutional stability.
For BPO investors, El Salvador presents a nuanced risk profile. Improved security, competitive labor costs, U.S. dollarization and an established customer-service workforce are meaningful advantages. These should be balanced against the possibility that operating conditions could become increasingly dependent on the priorities of a single administration.
Guatemala: An Open Field Causing Uncertainty
Guatemala is expected to hold its first-round presidential election in June 2027, followed by a runoff in August if no candidate wins a majority. President Bernardo Arévalo cannot seek consecutive reelection. The candidate field is not final, but frequently discussed names include businessman Carlos Pineda, former diplomat Edmond Mulet, former first lady Sandra Torres and several candidates associated with the current reform movement.
There is no reliable favorite this far in advance. Guatemala's fragmented party system makes a runoff highly likely, and formal nominations, alliances and candidate eligibility decisions may materially change the field. The most important election risk is institutional rather than ideological. Attempts to prevent Arévalo from taking office after the 2023 election generated large demonstrations and road blockades. Concerns about judicial independence, corruption, and the composition of the Supreme Electoral Tribunal mean another close or administratively disputed result could produce similar unrest.
Guatemala City remains an attractive nearshore call center market because of competitive costs, a substantial customer-service labor pool, improving English skills and proximity to the United States. Several leading contenders are likely to support private investment, but the industry's risk outlook depends on whether the election is administered transparently and the result is respected.
Nicaragua: Election Risk Could Create Long-Term Risk
Nicaragua had been expected to hold a presidential election in 2027. That assumption is now in serious doubt. In July 2026, President Daniel Ortega declared that Nicaragua would no longer hold elections that could allow opposition parties to take power, effectively eliminating the prospect of a competitive presidential election under current conditions. Ortega has governed continuously since 2007, and constitutional changes have elevated his wife, Rosario Murillo, to co-president.
This is not a conventional contested-election scenario. It represents a further consolidation of authoritarian rule following years of opposition arrests, party restrictions, media closures, and the removal of citizenship from government critics. Even before Ortega's declaration, many questioned a free or competitive election. The possibility of a credible opposition victory is now effectively eliminated unless there is a major political change.
For call center and BPO companies, the elimination of competitive elections increases Nicaragua’s long-term country risk. Its labor costs, young workforce and proximity to the United States remain attractive, but prolonged authoritarian rule could deepen sanctions exposure, weaken legal protections and increase regulatory and reputational uncertainty. Existing operators should reassess long-term growth plans, client concerns, and their ability to protect assets and contracts, while new investors should take more time understanding longer-term risk before making a locational decision.
Election Risk Should Be Evaluated at the Country and Metro Level
The 2026–2027 election cycle is not producing a single regional outcome. Costa Rica's decisive and broadly accepted election reinforces continuity. Peru and Colombia elected market-oriented presidents, but extremely close results and strong opposition increased the likelihood of protests and political gridlock. Brazil and Argentina offer meaningful pro-business possibilities but also carry significant polarization, labor, fiscal, and currency risk. El Salvador combines important security and operating advantages with increasing institutional concentration. Guatemala's principal challenge is confidence in its institutions, while Nicaragua has moved beyond electoral uncertainty toward entrenched regime risk.
For call center and BPO site selection, companies should evaluate how each election could affect:
- Employee commuting, transportation reliability, absenteeism and access to operating facilities immediately post-election
- Labor laws, minimum wages and benefits
- Currency stability, inflation and long-term operating costs
- Foreign investment policy, tax treatment and economic incentives
- Physical security, telecommunications and business continuity
- Institutional reliability, contract enforcement and reputational exposure
- Cross-border trade policy, tariffs and relations with the United States
- Data protection, cybersecurity and cross-border data-transfer regulation
- Electricity reliability, energy costs and exposure to government price controls
Political risk should not automatically eliminate a country from consideration. Colombia, Peru, Brazil, Argentina, El Salvador and Guatemala all retain compelling labor and cost advantages. The appropriate response is to combine country-level political analysis with metro-level workforce, infrastructure, security and real estate due diligence. Site Selection Group helps companies balance these variables through global location strategy, labor analytics, operating-cost modeling, real estate advisory, economic incentives, and business-continuity planning.
